Although many Bayesian Network (BN) applications are now in everyday use, BNs have not yet achieved mainstream penetration. Focusing on practical real-world problem solving and model building, as opposed to algorithms and theory, Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks explains how to incorporate knowledge with data to develop and use (Bayesian) causal models of risk that provide powerful insights and better decision making.

Provides all tools necessary to build and run realistic Bayesian network models Supplies extensive example models based on real risk assessment problems in a wide range of application domains provided; for example, finance, safety, systems reliability, law, and more Introduces all necessary mathematics, probability, and statistics as needed

The book first establishes the basics of probability, risk, and building and using BN models, then goes into the detailed applications. The underlying BN algorithms appear in appendices rather than the main text since there is no need to understand them to build and use BN models. Keeping the body of the text free of intimidating mathematics, the book provides pragmatic advice about model building to ensure models are built efficiently.

A dedicated website, www.BayesianRisk.com, contains executable versions of all of the models described, exercises and worked solutions for all chapters, PowerPoint slides, numerous other resources, and a free downloadable copy of the AgenaRisk software.
Reviews

… although there have been several excellent books dedicated to Bayesian networks and related methods, these books tend to be aimed at readers who already have a high level of mathematical sophistication … . As such they are not accessible to readers who are not already proficient in those subjects. This book is an exciting development because it addresses this problem. … it should be understandable by any numerate reader interested in risk assessment and decision making. The bodes sufficient motivation and examples (as well as the mathematics and probability where needed from scratch) to enable readers to understand the core principles and power of Bayesian networks. However, the focus is on ensuring that readers can build practical Bayesian network models … readers are provided with a tool that performs the propagation, so they will be able to build their own models to solve real-world risk assessment problems.

—From the Foreword by Judea Pearl, UCLA Computer Science Department and 2011 Turing Award winner

This is an awesome book on using Bayesian networks for risk assessment and decision analysis. What makes this book so great is both its content and style. Fenton and Neil explain how the Bayesian networks work and how they can be built and applied to solve various decision-making problems in different areas. Even more importantly, the authors very clearly demonstrate motivations and advantages for using Bayesian networks over other modelling tech...